Storm surge and Baytown: what the water did in 1900, 1961, 1983 and 2008, and what the maps mean now

The key is to separate three things: a storm's surge, the height of the land, and the flood zone on today's map. An old high-water mark tells you what happened in one storm; it does not tell you by itself what will happen on your street now. The sections below keep those ideas separate.

The short version

• 1900 Galveston storm: water about 15 feet deep across the island, a 15.7-foot high-water mark, 6,000 to 8,000 dead in the city. Galveston answered with a six-mile seawall and raised the whole town by as much as 17 feet.
• 1961 Carla: Category 4 at landfall near Port O'Connor; 10 feet of surge at Galveston; in Baytown's Brownwood neighborhood, tides came into homes that had never flooded.
• 1983 Alicia: the storm that changed Baytown most. The National Weather Service measured a 10.6-foot surge at Baytown. Brownwood never recovered.
• 2008 Ike: 10 to 15 feet of surge on the west side of Galveston Bay, 15 to 20 on Bolivar and the east bay, with a 17.5-foot high mark ten miles inland in Chambers County.
• 2017 Harvey was rain, not surge: 51.88 inches at Cedar Bayou near Mont Belvieu, a United States record for one storm.
• The Coastal Texas Project, the "Ike Dike," is approved on paper at about $34 billion. The latest public figures we have are from late 2024, when construction had not started. Check the Texas General Land Office's coastal barrier page for the current schedule.

Surge, in plain words

A hurricane pushes a hill of seawater ahead of it. When that hill reaches a shallow bay, it has nowhere to go but up and inland. That rise, on top of the normal tide, is storm surge. It does more damage than wind along this coast, and it arrives before the eye does. Galveston Bay is shallow and wide, so a storm coming in from the Gulf can stack water deep into it, and Baytown, Cedar Bayou, Goose Creek and the San Jacinto River are where the north end of that water goes.

1900: the storm that built the seawall

On September 8, 1900, the Gulf came over Galveston Island. The water rose four feet in a single sudden step at one point, stood about 15 feet deep across the city, and left a mark at 15.7 feet. Between 6,000 and 8,000 people died in the city; estimates for the whole island run to 10,000 or 12,000. Galveston built a seawall six miles long and 17 feet above mean low tide, then pumped sand from the Gulf floor to raise the city itself by as much as 17 feet, jacking up 2,146 buildings in the process. That is the engineering answer to surge: a wall and height.

1961: Carla

Carla made landfall as a Category 4 near Port O'Connor on September 11, 1961. The surge was 10 feet at Galveston and 18.5 feet at Port Lavaca. In Baytown the story was the Brownwood peninsula, where high tides came into homes that had never flooded. Residents learned the word that would end the neighborhood: subsidence, the ground itself sinking. Carla was the warning.

1983: Alicia

Alicia came ashore on August 18, 1983, a Category 3. The Weather Service's post-storm survey put the surge at Baytown at 10.6 feet above mean sea level; Seabrook saw 11.3 and San Luis Pass 12.6. The Baytown Sun later wrote that Alicia left a deeper imprint on Baytown than any storm before or since. About 300 Brownwood families could not go home. The federal government bought the lots, the houses were bulldozed, and the land became the Baytown Nature Center. That story has its own page.

2008: Ike

Ike was the surge storm of a generation. On Bolivar Peninsula and the east side of Galveston Bay the water ran 15 to 20 feet; the highest mark, 17.5 feet, was found about ten miles inland in Chambers County. The west side of the bay, Baytown's side, saw 10 to 15 feet. The Nature Center, built on Brownwood's old ground, was badly damaged and later rebuilt.

2017: Harvey, the other kind of water

Harvey's damage here came from the sky. A gauge at Cedar Bayou near Mont Belvieu recorded 51.88 inches of rain by the afternoon of August 29, 2017, the most ever measured from one storm in the United States. Surge maps do not show rain risk; a street far from the bay can flood in a Harvey and stay dry in an Ike.

Reading the flood map for your street

The Front Desk's street card can tell you the FEMA flood zone for an address. The zone letters are the federal map's way of saying how likely water is: an "A" or "AE" zone has a one-in-a-hundred chance in any year of flooding, a "VE" zone adds wave action along the coast, and an "X" zone is lower risk, not no risk. A zone is a probability, not a promise, and Harvey put water in a great many "X" streets. If you are buying, ask for the elevation certificate and look at the zone; if you are renting, ask what happened here in 2008 and 2017. FEMA's Map Service Center (msc.fema.gov) has the official map for any address.

The wall that is not built yet

The Coastal Texas Project, usually called the Ike Dike, is a plan for gates and barriers across the mouth of Galveston Bay and along the coast. It carries a price of about $34 billion, with the federal government expected to pay 65 percent; Texas had put in $226 million as of late 2024, and construction had not started then. Once it does, the bay part alone is expected to take 12 to 20 years. Until then the bay is as open as it was in 1983.

Related

• Brownwood: the neighborhood Baytown gave back to the bay
• Front Desk: type your street for its flood zone

Sources

• Texas State Historical Association, Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/galveston-hurricane-of-1900)
• National Weather Service, Hurricane Carla 1961 (https://www.weather.gov/lch/1961Carla)
• National Weather Service, Hurricane Alicia surge survey (https://www.weather.gov/lch/1983Alicia-Surge)
• Baytown Sun, "How Hurricane Alicia reshaped bayside Baytown" (https://baytownsun.com/news/how-hurricane-alicia-reshaped-bayside-baytown/article_a885a256-0792-11e3-95cd-0019bb2963f4.html)
• National Weather Service Houston/Galveston, hurricanes of the 2000s (Ike) (https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricanes_climatology_2000s)
• Center for Land Use Interpretation, Brownwood Subdivision (https://clui.org/ludb/site/brownwood-subdivision)
• WSVN/AP, Cedar Bayou 51.88 inches, Harvey record (https://wsvn.com/news/us-world/nws-cedar-bayou-texas-records-51-88-inches-of-rain-from-harvey-new-record/)
• Community Impact, Coastal Texas Project status, November 2024 (https://communityimpact.com/bay-area/development/after-active-hurricane-season-coastal-texas-project-waits-for-more-federal-funding/)
• Texas General Land Office, Coastal Texas Project (https://coastalbarrier.texas.gov/)
• FEMA Flood Zones (https://www.fema.gov/glossary/flood-zones)

En español

La marejada ciclónica y Baytown

La marejada ciclónica es el agua de mar que un huracán empuja hacia la costa. La bahía de Galveston es poco profunda y ancha, así que esa agua sube y entra tierra adentro hasta Baytown, Cedar Bayou, Goose Creek y el río San Jacinto. Hay que separar tres cosas: la marejada de una tormenta, la altura del terreno y la zona de inundación del mapa actual. Una marca vieja le dice lo que pasó en una tormenta, no lo que pasará hoy en su calle.

Lo que hizo el agua

En 1900 el agua cubrió la isla de Galveston con unos 15 pies, dejó una marca de 15.7 pies y mató entre 6,000 y 8,000 personas en la ciudad. Galveston construyó un malecón de seis millas y elevó la ciudad hasta 17 pies. Carla, en 1961, metió la marea en casas de Brownwood que nunca se habían inundado; ese año alcanzó 10 pies de marejada en Galveston. Alicia, el 18 de agosto de 1983, dejó una marejada de 10.6 pies en Baytown, según el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, y unas 300 familias de Brownwood no pudieron volver; el terreno es hoy el Baytown Nature Center. Ike, en 2008, subió el agua de 10 a 15 pies en el lado oeste de la bahía y de 15 a 20 pies en Bolivar y el lado este. Harvey, en 2017, fue lluvia: 51.88 pulgadas en Cedar Bayou, cerca de Mont Belvieu, récord nacional para una sola tormenta.

Cómo leer el mapa de inundaciones

La Recepción (Front Desk) le muestra la zona de FEMA de su calle. Una zona A o AE tiene una probabilidad de uno en cien de inundarse cada año; una zona VE añade oleaje en la costa; una zona X tiene menos riesgo, no riesgo cero. Es una probabilidad, no una promesa, y Harvey inundó muchas calles en zona X. Si va a comprar, pida el certificado de elevación; si va a rentar, pregunte qué pasó en 2008 y en 2017.

El muro que todavía no existe

El proyecto costero de Texas, conocido como "Ike Dike", son compuertas y barreras en la boca de la bahía de Galveston. Cuesta unos $34 mil millones, y el gobierno federal pagaría el 65 por ciento. Texas había aportado $226 millones a fines de 2024, y la construcción aún no había empezado en ese momento. Consulte la página de barreras costeras de la Oficina General de Tierras de Texas para el calendario actual. Mientras tanto, la bahía sigue tan abierta como en 1983.